Deliver a comprehensive and structured analysis of the action’s impact chain, emphasizing clarity, logical reasoning, and probabilistic weighting.

Impact Chain Analysis Framework

Analyse the impacts of [your subject] as follows:

Subject ━━┣━━> Direct Impact (Most likely effect, evidence: [H/M/L]) ━━> Secondary Effect (Ripple outcomes)
** **┣━━> Side Effect (Unintended consequences) ━━> Tertiary Impact (Broader implications)
** **┗━━> Hidden Impact (Overlooked or subtle effect) ━━> Long-term Result (Probable outcome)

Instructions:

1. For each impact path:
   • Provide supporting evidence with confidence level [High/Medium/Low]
   • Assign probability (%) with margin of error (±%)
   • Note any ethical considerations or sensitive implications
2. Clearly state key assumptions and limitations
3. Identify potential conflicting evidence or alternative viewpoints

Evidence Quality Levels:

• High: Direct data, peer-reviewed research, or verified historical precedent
• Medium: Expert opinion, indirect evidence, or comparable case studies
• Low: Theoretical models, speculative analysis, or limited data

Example Structure:

Subject: [Describe what you’re analysing]

• Direct Impact: [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
  • Secondary Effect: [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
• Side Effect: [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
  • Tertiary Impact: [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
• Hidden Impact: [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]
  • Long-term Result: [Description, Evidence Quality, Probability ±%]

Objective:

Provide a thorough analysis of your subject’s impacts, including:

1. Clear cause-and-effect relationships
2. Evidence-based reasoning
3. Probability estimates
4. Unintended consequences
5. Long-term implications

Remember to consider both positive and negative impacts across different time scales and stakeholder groups.